Back in 2018, it took just a short phrase to electrify a Labour conference and to show Labour was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not exactly soaring oratory, the phrase met with rapturous applause as delegates rose in spontaneous acclamation.
As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses having such an effect. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding remain as an option". But context is everything.
In that deeply polarized period of 2018, departing from the prepared script like this was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in key constituencies over the pro-European instincts within Labour. With that single address, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a political gambler who would stand up for the party's base against the leadership he later succeeded.
The Shift in Position and Closed Issues
Since then, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the Brexit issue had been settled by the previous year’s general election. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” promises that forbade re-entry into the EU, the single market or a customs union.
Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in key seats, even if polling evidence suggests many of them have died or changed their minds.
Pressure Building on Europe
Yet, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled Labour leader. And, if EU relations is no longer the central crisis of British politics, a lid that has been kept tightly sealed for five years is beginning to rattle again.
Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified their language about the devastation that leaving the EU has inflicted on Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was his primary goal and remains his sole political accomplishment.
Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, reportedly has resulted in a national economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, towers over the minor adjustments thus far implemented by ministers. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal negotiated with the EU in 2024 provides gains quantified in low decimal points.
Cabinet Divergence and Bolder Ideas
Rachel Reeves is one of those trying to overcome entrenched Home Office resistance to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme by which youths can travel between the UK and the EU for work or study.
David Lammy has pondered publicly regarding the clear advantages of being in an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the powerful finance committee, recently supported a Liberal Democrat motion on joining one.
While Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees UK-EU relations, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, maintains the firm boundaries are still in place, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. One idea would be to declaring the commencement of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the following election platform, to be enacted only after securing a new electoral mandate.
The Prime Minister's Fundamental Scepticism
However, Starmer has lately been damping it all down on the idea cautioning that rejoining a European customs area could undermine the trade pacts with America, which he views as signature achievements of his government.
It is understood that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, stemming from three further factors.
- Firstly, he thinks a customs pact is now much harder because his ministers actively diverging from EU regulations across a range of sectors, like environmental standards.
- Secondly, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain to join a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse of negotiations has led British officials that former EU partners are less interested in cutting special deals to the UK and are more focused on proving that Brexit does not work.
- Lastly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is viewed by some influential figures in Downing Street as grounds for the UK to keep its distance from the EU.
A Bizarre Document and Strategic Considerations
This strange and concerning document asserts Europe faces “civilizational erasure” due to Muslim migration. It contains only one reference of the UK, placed beside a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in British politics to encourage the rise of “patriotic” parties.
However, instead of deciding that this makes the US an unreliable partner, the government reportedly fear that aligning closer with Europe would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.
Leadership Speculation and The Ghost from the Past
All of which brings us back to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not a pitch to become leader but simply an attempt to keep open the possibility of remain being on the ballot paper. In fact, back then, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement of the kind he now appears to be opposing.
Observers within Downing Street have noticed that Wes Streeting, widely considered would stand for the leadership, is part of a clutch of cabinet ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition regarding the EU.
Staff for Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a future race to replace Starmer, insist she won’t discuss her position on a customs union because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.
The Clear Risk and A Wise Memory
The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found.
It would be wise for Starmer to recall the impact that a short phrase had for him in 2018. Potential pathways for a major proposal on EU relations which the PM should not “rule out”; he should explore them himself, before someone else adopt them as their own.
